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Nombre de programmes trouvés : 76
Conférences

le (17m29s)

Comparison of Simulated Tree-Ring Cellulose d180 at the European Scale

In order to investigate factors involved in the inter-annual variability of d180 in tree ring cellulose (d18OTRC), we simulated the d18OTRC from 1960 to 2001 over Europe. We used 1) simulated climate and water isotope fields of REMOiso, a meso-scale circulation model, 2) hypotheses of the distribution of roots and soil hydrology, and 3) a mechanistic model of oxygen-isotopes in tree ring cellulose (d18OTRC). Sensitivity tests show that relative humidity of the air and soil water d18O contribute differently to the d180 in tree ring cellulose according to regional climate. In the commonly observed hydrological situation, humidity of the air ...
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Conférences

le (11m49s)

Holocene Climatic Changes and Their Effect on Morphodynamics and Sedimentation in Campania

High-resolution paleoclimatic studies (e.g. 18O, 13C, CH4, MS, ect) provide 38 detailed reconstructions of the Holocene climatic variability, but they don’t are unable to provide direct informations about the effects of the climatic changes on landscape and human ecosystems. In order to assess the response of the subaerial geomorphologic/pedo-sedimentary systems to the climatic changes and their potential impact on the ancient human communities, detailed stratigraphical investigations in Campania (southern Italy) have been carried out. In addition to indications provided by litho-pedostratigraphical and geomorphological investigations, the study has recurred to historical, archaeological, and palaeobiological data. Some of the main global cyclical ...
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Conférences

le (15m24s)

The State of UK Climate Modelling

The UK recently invested £23 million (~US$40 million) in a program in Quantifying and Understanding the Earth SysTem (QUEST). The final product of this investment is the state-of-the-art QUEST Earth System Model (QUESM), which is comprised of the most comprehensive modeling and understanding of terrestrial, atmosphere, and marine processes ever built. QUESM is to be linked with the world-leading Hadley Centre’s GCM to assess and understand changes in the Earth system with respect to climate and global change. Here, I present the state of UK climate modeling, an overview of the QUEST Earth System Model, and detail the individual sub-models ...
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Conférences

le (10m13s)

Data-Model Fusion Approach in Global Change Research: Recent Development and Future Challenges

It is increasingly recognized that global change research requires methods and strategies for combing process models and data in systematic ways. This is leading to research towards the application of model-data fusion approach. The model-data fusion is a new quantitative approach to model analysis and data assimilation that provides a high level of empirical constraint over model predictions based on observations. Applications of model-data fusion require (a) a model that describes the underlying physical, chemical and biological processes, (b) experimental observations and (c) an optimization tool. The optimization tool is used to find optimal estimates of model parameters or states ...
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Conférences

le (14m29s)

Setting Cumulative Emissions Targets to Reduce the Risk of "Dangerous" Climate Change

The ultimate objective of climate change mitigation is to reduce the amount of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in order to achieve “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” (UNFCCC, Article 2). This statement raises a number of questions regarding (i) what “dangerous interference” means, (ii) what GHG concentration level may considered “safe”, and (iii) what emissions pathway should be taken towards stabilization. Here we present a novel approach to coupled climate-carbon cycle modelling which allows one to estimate the probability that any given level of ...
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Conférences

le (28m6s)

Global Climate Change: Past and Future

My presentation will begin with a review of the now-solid evidence for a human influence on the climate of recent decades. Such evidence includes instrumental measurements available for the past two centuries, paleoclimate observations spanning more than a millennium, and comparisons of the predictions from computer models with observed patterns of climate change. I will then address how the study of paleoclimate can inform our assessments of the potential future impacts of human-induced climate change.
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Conférences

le (31m55s)

The Economics of the Climate/Development of the Gordian Knot; Beyond a Sound Pessimism

We will first suggest that costs of meeting ambitious climate targets capable to stabilize global warming below 2°C or 3°C temperature increase have been underestimated so far. The first reason is the underestimation of baseline emission scenarios, the second is the magnitude of transition costs towards a low carbon development profile in emerging economies. Second we will show that this pessimistic diagnosis does not lead to inaction but to a reframing of discussions on future international coordination of climate action. We will insist on the necessity of complementing the conventional approaches relying on the emergence of a world carbon price ...
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