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Nombre de programmes trouvés : 76
Conférences

le (30m18s)

Borehole Climatology and Model Simulations: Steps to Integrated Assessment

Progress in understanding climate variability through the last millennium leans on simulation and reconstruction efforts. Exercises blending both approaches present a great potential for answering questions relevant both for the simulation and reconstruction of past climate, and depend on the specific peculiarities of proxies and methods involved in climate reconstructions, as well as the realism and limitations of model simulations. This talk addresses the use of millennial simulations with the ECHO-g model to explore three main issues that group most of the interaction between model and geothermal efforts: the use of models as a validation tool for borehole climate reconstructions; ...
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Conférences

le (15m24s)

The State of UK Climate Modelling

The UK recently invested £23 million (~US$40 million) in a program in Quantifying and Understanding the Earth SysTem (QUEST). The final product of this investment is the state-of-the-art QUEST Earth System Model (QUESM), which is comprised of the most comprehensive modeling and understanding of terrestrial, atmosphere, and marine processes ever built. QUESM is to be linked with the world-leading Hadley Centre’s GCM to assess and understand changes in the Earth system with respect to climate and global change. Here, I present the state of UK climate modeling, an overview of the QUEST Earth System Model, and detail the individual sub-models ...
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Conférences

le (10m13s)

Data-Model Fusion Approach in Global Change Research: Recent Development and Future Challenges

It is increasingly recognized that global change research requires methods and strategies for combing process models and data in systematic ways. This is leading to research towards the application of model-data fusion approach. The model-data fusion is a new quantitative approach to model analysis and data assimilation that provides a high level of empirical constraint over model predictions based on observations. Applications of model-data fusion require (a) a model that describes the underlying physical, chemical and biological processes, (b) experimental observations and (c) an optimization tool. The optimization tool is used to find optimal estimates of model parameters or states ...
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Conférences

le (36m2s)

Linking Adaptation and Mitigation for Climate Risk Reduction

How people privately and collectively adapt to climate risk can affect the costs and benefits of public mitigation policy (e.g., Kyoto); an obvious point often neglected in actual policy making. Herein we use the economic theory of endogenous risk to address this optimal mix of mitigation and adaptation strategies, and examine how increased variability in climate change threats affects this mix. We stress that a better understanding of the cross-links between mitigation and adaptation would potentially make it possible to provide more risk reduction with less wealth. Policies that are formulated without considering the cross-links can unintentionally undermine the effectiveness ...
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Conférences

le (37m35s)

Are European Ecosystems Vulnerable to Climate Change

The relatively simple question posed by this title turns out to be complicated in its implementation, for a number of reasons: First, ecosystems have changed in response to changing climate throughout history - however this has not normally been qualified as “vulnerability”. Second, most changes in 26 ecosystems have multiple forcings, climate change being only one of them. Third, whether changes in ecosystem functioning qualify as “vulnerability” depends largely on the human point of view. Resolving the issue is very urgent today, because it is indisputable that rapid changes are taking place and that some of these are considered “negative ...
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Conférences

le (22m8s)

Regional Climate Change and Extremes

Global coupled ocean-atmosphere models, driven by greenhouse gas concentrations according to several hypotheses for the next century, have been used in the last IPCC-AR4 report to depict possible future climates of the planet. It will be shown that a regional atmosphere model is able to represent with some fidelity the different climates over France, thanks to a realistic representation of the main mountains. Local extreme phenomena like intense precipitations are better taken into account. Regional models are an essential link between physical hypotheses (e.g. 2x versus 3x CO2 concentration) and needs from the impact community.
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Conférences

le (45m11s)

A Roadmap to Assess the Economic Cost of Climate Change with an Application to Hurricanes in the United States

This talk presents a methodological roadmap to assess macro-economic damages from climate change. To do so, it explores a single manifestation of climate change in a single location: an increase in hurricane intensity in the United States. The presentation starts from a global climate change, and follows the causal chain to total macro-economic losses. First, the large-scale change is downscaled to a spatial scale pertinent to investigate socio-economic impacts. Here, the Emanuel hurricane model is used to estimate present and future local landfall probabilities. Second, a statistical analysis of historical landfalls is used to translate these probability changes into direct ...
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Conférences

le (14m29s)

Setting Cumulative Emissions Targets to Reduce the Risk of "Dangerous" Climate Change

The ultimate objective of climate change mitigation is to reduce the amount of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in order to achieve “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” (UNFCCC, Article 2). This statement raises a number of questions regarding (i) what “dangerous interference” means, (ii) what GHG concentration level may considered “safe”, and (iii) what emissions pathway should be taken towards stabilization. Here we present a novel approach to coupled climate-carbon cycle modelling which allows one to estimate the probability that any given level of ...
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Conférences

le (10m57s)

Food demand, Productivity Growth and the Spatial Distribution of Land and Water use: A Global Modelling Approach

Nowadays, human society appropriates about one quarter of total net primary production of the terrestrial biosphere. Production of food, energy and materials, and the related use of land and water account for crucial components and interactions in the Earth System. However, rising food, energy and material demand, climate change and ambitious mitigation policies will enhance the competition for land and water. While the combined impacts of these drivers are still highly uncertain, global land-use patterns will change in the future, reacting to these pressures. Projecting their future development is important to study both, their impacts on the Earth System as ...
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