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Nombre de programmes trouvés : 75
Conférences

le (13m18s)

Climatic Hazard Mitigation Through Risk and Resilience Committees in Nepal

Nepal lies in an ecologically fragile and seismic region with a history of devastating Glacier Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF), landslides and earthquakes. Increases in temperature could increase the frequency and magnitude of climatic disaster occurrences. Winter snow in Kathmandu in 2007 after nearly 65 years absence, frequent flood events since 2000, and an increased number of glacier lakes in the upper Himalayas indicates that climate change may already be having a significant impact. Disaster events in Nepal are known to impact disproportionately on poor and marginalised people who live in more exposed environments during risky times and without adequate forms ...
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Conférences

le (45m11s)

A Roadmap to Assess the Economic Cost of Climate Change with an Application to Hurricanes in the United States

This talk presents a methodological roadmap to assess macro-economic damages from climate change. To do so, it explores a single manifestation of climate change in a single location: an increase in hurricane intensity in the United States. The presentation starts from a global climate change, and follows the causal chain to total macro-economic losses. First, the large-scale change is downscaled to a spatial scale pertinent to investigate socio-economic impacts. Here, the Emanuel hurricane model is used to estimate present and future local landfall probabilities. Second, a statistical analysis of historical landfalls is used to translate these probability changes into direct ...
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Conférences

le (30m18s)

Borehole Climatology and Model Simulations: Steps to Integrated Assessment

Progress in understanding climate variability through the last millennium leans on simulation and reconstruction efforts. Exercises blending both approaches present a great potential for answering questions relevant both for the simulation and reconstruction of past climate, and depend on the specific peculiarities of proxies and methods involved in climate reconstructions, as well as the realism and limitations of model simulations. This talk addresses the use of millennial simulations with the ECHO-g model to explore three main issues that group most of the interaction between model and geothermal efforts: the use of models as a validation tool for borehole climate reconstructions; ...
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Conférences

le (22m8s)

Regional Climate Change and Extremes

Global coupled ocean-atmosphere models, driven by greenhouse gas concentrations according to several hypotheses for the next century, have been used in the last IPCC-AR4 report to depict possible future climates of the planet. It will be shown that a regional atmosphere model is able to represent with some fidelity the different climates over France, thanks to a realistic representation of the main mountains. Local extreme phenomena like intense precipitations are better taken into account. Regional models are an essential link between physical hypotheses (e.g. 2x versus 3x CO2 concentration) and needs from the impact community.
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Conférences

le (31m27s)

From Climate Models to Earth System Models

Complex climate models that describe the evolution of the coupled ocean atmosphere cryosphere system are gradually extended to “non physical” components of the earth system, and account for land vegetation dynamics, ocean biology, global biogeochemistry and atmospheric chemistry. In the future, these models will have to better represent the potential feedbacks with society and therefore to couple the natural bio-physical components with the socio-economic system. The paper will review the present status of complex climate and Earth system models, report some preliminary attempts to include societal aspects, and highlight challenges for future research.
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Conférences

le (37m35s)

Are European Ecosystems Vulnerable to Climate Change

The relatively simple question posed by this title turns out to be complicated in its implementation, for a number of reasons: First, ecosystems have changed in response to changing climate throughout history - however this has not normally been qualified as “vulnerability”. Second, most changes in 26 ecosystems have multiple forcings, climate change being only one of them. Third, whether changes in ecosystem functioning qualify as “vulnerability” depends largely on the human point of view. Resolving the issue is very urgent today, because it is indisputable that rapid changes are taking place and that some of these are considered “negative ...
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Conférences

le (11m43s)

The Largest Lakes and reservoirs of Russia as a Priority Water Ressource for Society

Global change for the last 25 years drives to important changes in hydrometeorological regime in different regions, reflecting water resources change of the larges reservoirs and lakes of Russia and of lakes’ district with more than 460,000 small and middle size lakes (North-western part of Russia and Finland. Interdisciplinary approaches in water resources research include as methods of traditional hydrology and climatology as paleoclimatology and economy. Decrease in the water level of largest Lakes (Ladoga, Onega, Ilmen) by 35-70 cm has been registered over the 1990s, the warmest decade in the time series. At the same time inflow to the ...
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Conférences

le (21m39s)

Present-Day Geomorphological Changes in Polar Regions

The landscape uniqueness of polar zone manifests itself in morphological traces of older glaciations and marine transgressions, areas of present-day glaciations, multi-year permafrost, multi-year snow covers, deglaciation processes variable in time and space and resulting in an expansion of ice-free 94 areas, multi-directional geosuccession, and finally in the various responses of the Arctic peoples to landscape changes and the growing human impact. The abrupt landscape changes taking place over a period shorter than the life span of a single generation can be due to a wide variety of natural causes, whether endogenous or exogenous, or to the increasing, multi-directed human ...
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Conférences

le (31m25s)

Post-2012 options to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The presentation will focus on post-2012 options to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, putting special emphasis on the need to abate world emissions. The presentation will focus on post-2012 options to reduce greenhouse 27 gas (GHG) emissions, putting special emphasis on the need to abate world emissions at least cost, which in turn requires the need to select a least-cost set of policy instruments. In particular, model simulations will be presented to discuss whether and how price instruments should be combined with technology- support policies in order to reduce overall mitigation costs. On a more speculative note, the potential implications ...
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