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Nombre de programmes trouvés : 77
Conférences

le (31m27s)

From Climate Models to Earth System Models

Complex climate models that describe the evolution of the coupled ocean atmosphere cryosphere system are gradually extended to “non physical” components of the earth system, and account for land vegetation dynamics, ocean biology, global biogeochemistry and atmospheric chemistry. In the future, these models will have to better represent the potential feedbacks with society and therefore to couple the natural bio-physical components with the socio-economic system. The paper will review the present status of complex climate and Earth system models, report some preliminary attempts to include societal aspects, and highlight challenges for future research.
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Conférences

le (31m55s)

The Economics of the Climate/Development of the Gordian Knot; Beyond a Sound Pessimism

We will first suggest that costs of meeting ambitious climate targets capable to stabilize global warming below 2°C or 3°C temperature increase have been underestimated so far. The first reason is the underestimation of baseline emission scenarios, the second is the magnitude of transition costs towards a low carbon development profile in emerging economies. Second we will show that this pessimistic diagnosis does not lead to inaction but to a reframing of discussions on future international coordination of climate action. We will insist on the necessity of complementing the conventional approaches relying on the emergence of a world carbon price ...
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Conférences

le (33m37s)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Challenges of Climate policy, Equity and Ethics

The 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report provides clear guidance for the greenhouse gas emissions reductions needed to limit global warming to specific targets such as 2 °C above pre-industrial values, as adopted formally by the European Union. Despite the strong scientific consensus found by the IPCC concerning the reality and seriousness of global warming, worldwide emissions of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change continue to increase each year. The nations of the world are still far from agreement on how to act to reduce emissions.
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Conférences

le (35m28s)

Industrial and Environmental Policies: Reciprocal Impacts

Total as a key player of the Oil and Gas industry is providing answers to 25 environmental challenges. In that respect, it has already developed environmental objectives and policies. Its environmental footprints is being assessed, controlled and reduced with a set of concrete means to improve its performance, a better selection of major challenges and a better report to external stake holders. Energy and climate issues are inextricably interwoven, which means that we have to help to reconcile the objectives of today’s society, pursuing economic growth while protecting the climate for future generations. Faced with this predicament, we are ...
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Conférences

le (36m2s)

Linking Adaptation and Mitigation for Climate Risk Reduction

How people privately and collectively adapt to climate risk can affect the costs and benefits of public mitigation policy (e.g., Kyoto); an obvious point often neglected in actual policy making. Herein we use the economic theory of endogenous risk to address this optimal mix of mitigation and adaptation strategies, and examine how increased variability in climate change threats affects this mix. We stress that a better understanding of the cross-links between mitigation and adaptation would potentially make it possible to provide more risk reduction with less wealth. Policies that are formulated without considering the cross-links can unintentionally undermine the effectiveness ...
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Conférences

le (37m35s)

Are European Ecosystems Vulnerable to Climate Change

The relatively simple question posed by this title turns out to be complicated in its implementation, for a number of reasons: First, ecosystems have changed in response to changing climate throughout history - however this has not normally been qualified as “vulnerability”. Second, most changes in 26 ecosystems have multiple forcings, climate change being only one of them. Third, whether changes in ecosystem functioning qualify as “vulnerability” depends largely on the human point of view. Resolving the issue is very urgent today, because it is indisputable that rapid changes are taking place and that some of these are considered “negative ...
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Conférences

le (45m11s)

A Roadmap to Assess the Economic Cost of Climate Change with an Application to Hurricanes in the United States

This talk presents a methodological roadmap to assess macro-economic damages from climate change. To do so, it explores a single manifestation of climate change in a single location: an increase in hurricane intensity in the United States. The presentation starts from a global climate change, and follows the causal chain to total macro-economic losses. First, the large-scale change is downscaled to a spatial scale pertinent to investigate socio-economic impacts. Here, the Emanuel hurricane model is used to estimate present and future local landfall probabilities. Second, a statistical analysis of historical landfalls is used to translate these probability changes into direct ...
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