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Nombre de programmes trouvés : 24
Conférences

le (28m58s)

Modelling Forced and Internal Climate Variability During the Last Millennium

At hemispheric scale, the surface temperature is strongly influenced by the 28 variations of the natural (solar and volcanic) and anthropogenic (land-use, sulphate aerosols, greenhouse gas concentrations) forcings. By contrast, at regional scale, the internal variability, which is purely due to the internal dynamics of the climate system, can mask the forced response. As a consequence, before the 20th century, cold or warm periods are rarely global, homogenous phenomena. Furthermore, the response to the forcing could be associated with changes in the frequency of some modes of variability. This interplay between the response of the climate system to the various ...
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Conférences

le (24m29s)

Detection and Attribution of Climate Change to Different Causes

According to the last IPCC report, the most part of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. This statement relies on a long process of demonstration that consisted in evaluating the ability of the successive generations of climate models to reproduce and interpret the climate variability of the last decades. The more and more numerous statistical analyses aiming at detecting and attributing climate change to natural and anthropogenic causes have reinforced the assessment of experts. The recent detection and attribution studies of observed ...
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