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Nombre de programmes trouvés : 394
Conférences

le (17m29s)

Long Term Climate Variability: from Past to Future and from Data to Models

Data show that climate has always changed in the past, sometimes with a larger amplitude than what we experimented for two decades. But the main signatures of the anthopogenic forcing are the speed of the change and its globality. Paleodata at different scales are used to test the realism of climate model simulations and then their ability to simulate climates very different from the present one. They are used also to test impact models for water, forest resources. This talk aims to illustrate how paleoclimatology can bring a lot to global change studies, because it privileges interdisciplinary approaches.
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Conférences

le (24m29s)

Detection and Attribution of Climate Change to Different Causes

According to the last IPCC report, the most part of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. This statement relies on a long process of demonstration that consisted in evaluating the ability of the successive generations of climate models to reproduce and interpret the climate variability of the last decades. The more and more numerous statistical analyses aiming at detecting and attributing climate change to natural and anthropogenic causes have reinforced the assessment of experts. The recent detection and attribution studies of observed ...
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Conférences

le (36m2s)

Linking Adaptation and Mitigation for Climate Risk Reduction

How people privately and collectively adapt to climate risk can affect the costs and benefits of public mitigation policy (e.g., Kyoto); an obvious point often neglected in actual policy making. Herein we use the economic theory of endogenous risk to address this optimal mix of mitigation and adaptation strategies, and examine how increased variability in climate change threats affects this mix. We stress that a better understanding of the cross-links between mitigation and adaptation would potentially make it possible to provide more risk reduction with less wealth. Policies that are formulated without considering the cross-links can unintentionally undermine the effectiveness ...
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Conférences

le (1h26m4s)

Corps de/dans la ville / Jean-Luc Nancy

Corps de/dans la ville / Jean-Luc Nancy, in colloque international L'Art de la Ville / The Art of the City organisé par l'équipe Cultures Anglo-Saxonnes (CAS) de l'Université de Toulouse 2-Le Mirail, 6 -8 novembre 2008.Dans un style à la fois érudit et ludique, prenant au pied de la lettre le thème "l'Art de la ville" et refusant l'idée de ville limitée à ses fonctions, le philosophe Jean-Luc Nancy présente une vision de la ville en tant que créatrice d'elle même, de sa propre œuvre, tout entièrement faite de son propre mouvement. D'un mouvement de prolifération indéfinie, de dispersion permanente, ...
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Conférences

le (45m11s)

A Roadmap to Assess the Economic Cost of Climate Change with an Application to Hurricanes in the United States

This talk presents a methodological roadmap to assess macro-economic damages from climate change. To do so, it explores a single manifestation of climate change in a single location: an increase in hurricane intensity in the United States. The presentation starts from a global climate change, and follows the causal chain to total macro-economic losses. First, the large-scale change is downscaled to a spatial scale pertinent to investigate socio-economic impacts. Here, the Emanuel hurricane model is used to estimate present and future local landfall probabilities. Second, a statistical analysis of historical landfalls is used to translate these probability changes into direct ...
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