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Nombre de programmes trouvés : 6163
Conférences

le (31m55s)

The Economics of the Climate/Development of the Gordian Knot; Beyond a Sound Pessimism

We will first suggest that costs of meeting ambitious climate targets capable to stabilize global warming below 2°C or 3°C temperature increase have been underestimated so far. The first reason is the underestimation of baseline emission scenarios, the second is the magnitude of transition costs towards a low carbon development profile in emerging economies. Second we will show that this pessimistic diagnosis does not lead to inaction but to a reframing of discussions on future international coordination of climate action. We will insist on the necessity of complementing the conventional approaches relying on the emergence of a world carbon price ...
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Conférences

le (23m15s)

Interlocking Natural and Social Systems - Resilience, Governance and Research Policy Considerations

In this presentation the start is made from the 2007 IPCC statement that it now seems consolidated that there is a clear sign of the importance of the anthropogenic factors in the climate change panorama in addition to the natural phenomena. Thus the current situation of civilisation seems to be characterised by the quickly growing interference and to some extent control by humans over natural flows e.g. the carbon or nitrogen cycles to an extent not earlier seen in history. This development is of recent date - maybe half a century - and could be regarded as the beginning of ...
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Conférences

le (31m25s)

Post-2012 options to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The presentation will focus on post-2012 options to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, putting special emphasis on the need to abate world emissions. The presentation will focus on post-2012 options to reduce greenhouse 27 gas (GHG) emissions, putting special emphasis on the need to abate world emissions at least cost, which in turn requires the need to select a least-cost set of policy instruments. In particular, model simulations will be presented to discuss whether and how price instruments should be combined with technology- support policies in order to reduce overall mitigation costs. On a more speculative note, the potential implications ...
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Conférences

le (33m37s)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Challenges of Climate policy, Equity and Ethics

The 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report provides clear guidance for the greenhouse gas emissions reductions needed to limit global warming to specific targets such as 2 °C above pre-industrial values, as adopted formally by the European Union. Despite the strong scientific consensus found by the IPCC concerning the reality and seriousness of global warming, worldwide emissions of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change continue to increase each year. The nations of the world are still far from agreement on how to act to reduce emissions.
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Conférences

le (37m35s)

Are European Ecosystems Vulnerable to Climate Change

The relatively simple question posed by this title turns out to be complicated in its implementation, for a number of reasons: First, ecosystems have changed in response to changing climate throughout history - however this has not normally been qualified as “vulnerability”. Second, most changes in 26 ecosystems have multiple forcings, climate change being only one of them. Third, whether changes in ecosystem functioning qualify as “vulnerability” depends largely on the human point of view. Resolving the issue is very urgent today, because it is indisputable that rapid changes are taking place and that some of these are considered “negative ...
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Conférences

le (22m8s)

Regional Climate Change and Extremes

Global coupled ocean-atmosphere models, driven by greenhouse gas concentrations according to several hypotheses for the next century, have been used in the last IPCC-AR4 report to depict possible future climates of the planet. It will be shown that a regional atmosphere model is able to represent with some fidelity the different climates over France, thanks to a realistic representation of the main mountains. Local extreme phenomena like intense precipitations are better taken into account. Regional models are an essential link between physical hypotheses (e.g. 2x versus 3x CO2 concentration) and needs from the impact community.
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Conférences

le (45m11s)

A Roadmap to Assess the Economic Cost of Climate Change with an Application to Hurricanes in the United States

This talk presents a methodological roadmap to assess macro-economic damages from climate change. To do so, it explores a single manifestation of climate change in a single location: an increase in hurricane intensity in the United States. The presentation starts from a global climate change, and follows the causal chain to total macro-economic losses. First, the large-scale change is downscaled to a spatial scale pertinent to investigate socio-economic impacts. Here, the Emanuel hurricane model is used to estimate present and future local landfall probabilities. Second, a statistical analysis of historical landfalls is used to translate these probability changes into direct ...
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Conférences

le (14m29s)

Setting Cumulative Emissions Targets to Reduce the Risk of "Dangerous" Climate Change

The ultimate objective of climate change mitigation is to reduce the amount of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in order to achieve “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” (UNFCCC, Article 2). This statement raises a number of questions regarding (i) what “dangerous interference” means, (ii) what GHG concentration level may considered “safe”, and (iii) what emissions pathway should be taken towards stabilization. Here we present a novel approach to coupled climate-carbon cycle modelling which allows one to estimate the probability that any given level of ...
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Conférences

le (10m57s)

Food demand, Productivity Growth and the Spatial Distribution of Land and Water use: A Global Modelling Approach

Nowadays, human society appropriates about one quarter of total net primary production of the terrestrial biosphere. Production of food, energy and materials, and the related use of land and water account for crucial components and interactions in the Earth System. However, rising food, energy and material demand, climate change and ambitious mitigation policies will enhance the competition for land and water. While the combined impacts of these drivers are still highly uncertain, global land-use patterns will change in the future, reacting to these pressures. Projecting their future development is important to study both, their impacts on the Earth System as ...
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