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Nombre de programmes trouvés : 1290
Conférences

le (12m5s)

The Costs of Strategic Adaptation in a Simple Conceptual of Climate Change

A simple theoretical model of the process of strategic adaptation to climate change is proposed. Climate change is represented by a non-stationary Markov process on the space of climate states, and strategic adaptation by a simple resource allocation task in which agents incur costs when moving resources from one activity to another. A stationary analysis allows diagnostics that quantify the net costs of climate change, and the long-run benefits to adaptation, to be defined. A full dynamic analysis of the model 74 allows for the computation of the costs of negotiating the transition between two stationary climate regimes. We analyze ...
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Conférences

le (11m49s)

Holocene Climatic Changes and Their Effect on Morphodynamics and Sedimentation in Campania

High-resolution paleoclimatic studies (e.g. 18O, 13C, CH4, MS, ect) provide 38 detailed reconstructions of the Holocene climatic variability, but they don’t are unable to provide direct informations about the effects of the climatic changes on landscape and human ecosystems. In order to assess the response of the subaerial geomorphologic/pedo-sedimentary systems to the climatic changes and their potential impact on the ancient human communities, detailed stratigraphical investigations in Campania (southern Italy) have been carried out. In addition to indications provided by litho-pedostratigraphical and geomorphological investigations, the study has recurred to historical, archaeological, and palaeobiological data. Some of the main global cyclical ...
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Conférences

le (15m24s)

The State of UK Climate Modelling

The UK recently invested £23 million (~US$40 million) in a program in Quantifying and Understanding the Earth SysTem (QUEST). The final product of this investment is the state-of-the-art QUEST Earth System Model (QUESM), which is comprised of the most comprehensive modeling and understanding of terrestrial, atmosphere, and marine processes ever built. QUESM is to be linked with the world-leading Hadley Centre’s GCM to assess and understand changes in the Earth system with respect to climate and global change. Here, I present the state of UK climate modeling, an overview of the QUEST Earth System Model, and detail the individual sub-models ...
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Conférences

le (14m29s)

Setting Cumulative Emissions Targets to Reduce the Risk of "Dangerous" Climate Change

The ultimate objective of climate change mitigation is to reduce the amount of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in order to achieve “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” (UNFCCC, Article 2). This statement raises a number of questions regarding (i) what “dangerous interference” means, (ii) what GHG concentration level may considered “safe”, and (iii) what emissions pathway should be taken towards stabilization. Here we present a novel approach to coupled climate-carbon cycle modelling which allows one to estimate the probability that any given level of ...
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