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Nombre de programmes trouvés : 2871
Conférences

le (30m18s)

Borehole Climatology and Model Simulations: Steps to Integrated Assessment

Progress in understanding climate variability through the last millennium leans on simulation and reconstruction efforts. Exercises blending both approaches present a great potential for answering questions relevant both for the simulation and reconstruction of past climate, and depend on the specific peculiarities of proxies and methods involved in climate reconstructions, as well as the realism and limitations of model simulations. This talk addresses the use of millennial simulations with the ECHO-g model to explore three main issues that group most of the interaction between model and geothermal efforts: the use of models as a validation tool for borehole climate reconstructions; ...
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Conférences

le (37m35s)

Are European Ecosystems Vulnerable to Climate Change

The relatively simple question posed by this title turns out to be complicated in its implementation, for a number of reasons: First, ecosystems have changed in response to changing climate throughout history - however this has not normally been qualified as “vulnerability”. Second, most changes in 26 ecosystems have multiple forcings, climate change being only one of them. Third, whether changes in ecosystem functioning qualify as “vulnerability” depends largely on the human point of view. Resolving the issue is very urgent today, because it is indisputable that rapid changes are taking place and that some of these are considered “negative ...
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Conférences

le (22m8s)

Regional Climate Change and Extremes

Global coupled ocean-atmosphere models, driven by greenhouse gas concentrations according to several hypotheses for the next century, have been used in the last IPCC-AR4 report to depict possible future climates of the planet. It will be shown that a regional atmosphere model is able to represent with some fidelity the different climates over France, thanks to a realistic representation of the main mountains. Local extreme phenomena like intense precipitations are better taken into account. Regional models are an essential link between physical hypotheses (e.g. 2x versus 3x CO2 concentration) and needs from the impact community.
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Conférences

le (45m11s)

A Roadmap to Assess the Economic Cost of Climate Change with an Application to Hurricanes in the United States

This talk presents a methodological roadmap to assess macro-economic damages from climate change. To do so, it explores a single manifestation of climate change in a single location: an increase in hurricane intensity in the United States. The presentation starts from a global climate change, and follows the causal chain to total macro-economic losses. First, the large-scale change is downscaled to a spatial scale pertinent to investigate socio-economic impacts. Here, the Emanuel hurricane model is used to estimate present and future local landfall probabilities. Second, a statistical analysis of historical landfalls is used to translate these probability changes into direct ...
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Conférences

le (10m57s)

Food demand, Productivity Growth and the Spatial Distribution of Land and Water use: A Global Modelling Approach

Nowadays, human society appropriates about one quarter of total net primary production of the terrestrial biosphere. Production of food, energy and materials, and the related use of land and water account for crucial components and interactions in the Earth System. However, rising food, energy and material demand, climate change and ambitious mitigation policies will enhance the competition for land and water. While the combined impacts of these drivers are still highly uncertain, global land-use patterns will change in the future, reacting to these pressures. Projecting their future development is important to study both, their impacts on the Earth System as ...
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Conférences

le (36m2s)

Linking Adaptation and Mitigation for Climate Risk Reduction

How people privately and collectively adapt to climate risk can affect the costs and benefits of public mitigation policy (e.g., Kyoto); an obvious point often neglected in actual policy making. Herein we use the economic theory of endogenous risk to address this optimal mix of mitigation and adaptation strategies, and examine how increased variability in climate change threats affects this mix. We stress that a better understanding of the cross-links between mitigation and adaptation would potentially make it possible to provide more risk reduction with less wealth. Policies that are formulated without considering the cross-links can unintentionally undermine the effectiveness ...
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Conférences

le (15m0s)

Climate, Geography and Macroeconomics: Revised Data, Refined Analysis and New Findings

Assessments of social and economic impacts of climate change are primarily based on the results of biophysical climate impact models, which are aggregated, extrapolated and/or valued in monetary terms. Another potential source of information on climate impacts are spatial and/or temporal analogues, such as Ricardian analysis of climate impacts on agriculture. Another recent effort to this end involves the development of the G-Econ database (Nordhaus, 2006), which describes the relationship between climatic and geographic factors on the one hand and regional economic productivity on the other. A multivariate regression derived from this database has been used to estimate global economic ...
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Conférences

le (11m43s)

The Largest Lakes and reservoirs of Russia as a Priority Water Ressource for Society

Global change for the last 25 years drives to important changes in hydrometeorological regime in different regions, reflecting water resources change of the larges reservoirs and lakes of Russia and of lakes’ district with more than 460,000 small and middle size lakes (North-western part of Russia and Finland. Interdisciplinary approaches in water resources research include as methods of traditional hydrology and climatology as paleoclimatology and economy. Decrease in the water level of largest Lakes (Ladoga, Onega, Ilmen) by 35-70 cm has been registered over the 1990s, the warmest decade in the time series. At the same time inflow to the ...
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Conférences

le (10m37s)

Turning Hazards into Ressources? Climate Change, Floods and Coastal Wetlands in the Costa Brava (North-East Iberian Peninsula)

According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment, one of the most vulnerable areas in Europe are coastal zones. This is due to sea level rise combined with increased risks from storms. Coastal wetlands, in particular, are projected to be negatively affected by sea-level rise especially where they are constrained on their landward side, and lack sediment supply. Approximately 20 percent of existing coastal wetlands may disappear by 2080 because of the expansion of the sea. Mediterranean low-lying sedimentary coasts with highly diverse ecosystems appear to be the most vulnerable areas to this phenomenon. The 4th IPCC Report also warns about the ...
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Conférences

le (11m20s)

The Effect of Thermal Pollution on Benthic Foraminiferal Assemblages, in the Mediterranean Shore Face Adjacent to Hadera Power Plant (Israël)

Over the past several decades public and scientific awareness to global warming has increased significantly. As a result, many studies have examined the affects of global warming. However, the consequences of global warming on marine living organisms at the Levantine basin of the East Mediterranean has not yet been explored. In this study, we have used the thermal pollution of a power plant at the Mediterranean coast of Israel as an analog for the expected future trend of sea surface temperature (SST) rise. We have performed a sequence of 11 sampling campaigns at 5 stations located along a temperature gradient ...
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