Chapitres
Notice
Food demand, Productivity Growth and the Spatial Distribution of Land and Water use: A Global Modelling Approach
- document 1 document 2 document 3
- niveau 1 niveau 2 niveau 3
Descriptif
Nowadays, human society appropriates about one quarter of total net primary production of the terrestrial biosphere. Production of food, energy and materials, and the related use of land and water account for crucial components and interactions in the Earth System. However, rising food, energy and material demand, climate change and ambitious mitigation policies will enhance the competition for land and water. While the combined impacts of these drivers are still highly uncertain, global land-use patterns will change in the future, reacting to these pressures. Projecting their future development is important to study both, their impacts on the Earth System as well as the limitations of land use since freshwater and fertile land are only available in limited amounts. The challenge of projecting future land-use patterns is to account, within one modeling framework, for the socio-economic determinants of agricultural demand as well as for the spatial heterogeneity of the land’s suitability for agricultural production. In order to simulate these combined effects in a spatially explicit way, we present a Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment (MAgPIE). MAgPIE is a mathematical programming model covering the most important food and feed, livestock and bioenergy production types in 10 economic regions worldwide. It takes regional economic conditions as well as spatially explicit data on potential crop yields, land and water constraints from a global process-based vegetation model (LPJmL) that covers also the full hydrological cycle into account and derives specific land-use patterns for each grid cell. Implicit economic values (shadow prices) for binding constraints can be used to valuate resources for which in many places no markets exist, especially irrigation water and different types of technological change in agricultural production are included. In this presentation we describe the model structure and validation. We apply the model to possible future scenarios up to 2055 and derive required rates of technological change (i.e. yield increase) in agricultural production in order to meet future food demand.
Dans la même collection
-
Comparison of Simulated Tree-Ring Cellulose d180 at the European Scale
DanisPierre-AlainIn order to investigate factors involved in the inter-annual variability of d180 in tree ring cellulose (d18OTRC), we simulated the d18OTRC from 1960 to 2001 over Europe. We used 1) simulated climate
-
Borehole Climatology and Model Simulations: Steps to Integrated Assessment
Gonzales RoucoJesus FelipeProgress in understanding climate variability through the last millennium leans on simulation and reconstruction efforts. Exercises blending both approaches present a great potential for answering
-
Linking Adaptation and Mitigation for Climate Risk Reduction
ShogrenJason F.How people privately and collectively adapt to climate risk can affect the costs and benefits of public mitigation policy (e.g., Kyoto); an obvious point often neglected in actual policy making.
-
Social Impact of global Environmental Change on Farming Communities on the Ogoli River Bank in Otuk…
Anjeinu AbuGodwinOne of the manifestations of the global change in this study area is a marked reduction in the duration and amount of rainfall. This adversely affects the volume of the head waters that ultimately
-
How to Foster the Economic and Societal Technical Solutions?
CallonecGaëlThe presentation will focus on the interplay between economic scenarios (based on energy demand and CO2 emission reduction) with long run-public policies. The French case will be discussed in more
-
Debate
DjédjéOkoubi Franck DidierMillnerAntonyRaj AryalKomalFragnièreAugustinThe European Science Foundation (ESF) and the French Foundation of the Maison des Sciences de l’Homme (FMSH) (within the Entre-Sciences programme) have agreed to jointly develop a new conference
-
Climate Models: learning from the Past Long-Term Climate Variability
JoussaumeSylvieProjections of future climate change rely on global climate models. Such models simulate the dynamics and physics of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system and move towards models of the full Earth
-
Data-Model Fusion Approach in Global Change Research: Recent Development and Future Challenges
PengChanghuiIt is increasingly recognized that global change research requires methods and strategies for combing process models and data in systematic ways. This is leading to research towards the application of
-
The Impacts of Climate Change on Continental Ecosystems
SeguinBernardClimate change will deeply modify the ecophysiological functioningof plants, by creating a set of conditions which could be more favourable (in the sense of biomass production) or not. Among the first
-
The Economics of the Climate/Development of the Gordian Knot; Beyond a Sound Pessimism
HourcadeJean-CharlesWe will first suggest that costs of meeting ambitious climate targets capable to stabilize global warming below 2°C or 3°C temperature increase have been underestimated so far. The first reason is the
-
Debate
CallonecGaëlDupuisJohannThoronSylvieThe European Science Foundation (ESF) and the French Foundation of the Maison des Sciences de l’Homme (FMSH) (within the Entre-Sciences programme) have agreed to jointly develop a new conference
-
IPCC Working Group I and III
JoussaumeSylvieThe European Science Foundation (ESF) and the French Foundation of the Maison des Sciences de l’Homme (FMSH) (within the Entre-Sciences programme) have agreed to jointly develop a new conference
Sur le même thème
-
Géo-Rencontres 2024 / Les expériences valorisées dans le monde professionnel
LilloEmmaAraujoJulieHuartFlorianDubreuRomainBuquetDamienChazalLauraBorieMarianeForum sur les métiers en géosciences organisé par les étudiants du CMI Ingénierie Géologique et Civile, Université de Bordeaux, 12 avril 2024
-
Géo-Rencontres 2024 / Compétences et acquis nécessaires pour entrer dans le monde du travail
BrinonJulietteAmoleFili-FenuaPretouFrédéricCampetHugoLiébauxAlbinDe AlemeidaMarie-LouPoirierAymericDufrenoyAudreyForum sur les métiers en géosciences organisé par les étudiants du CMI Ingénierie Géologique et Civile, Université de Bordeaux, 12 avril 2024
-
Géo-Rencontres 2024 / Variété des carrières via les formations de l'université
InguimbertDianeLacazeRomaneLemaitreLaurieChazalLauraMontjeanPascalPoudevigneJacquesPortefaixFrédéricForum sur les métiers en géosciences organisé par les étudiants du CMI Ingénierie Géologique et Civile, Université de Bordeaux, 12 avril 2024
-
Géo-Rencontres 2024 / Présentation
LatasteJean-FrançoisLavieThéoForum sur les métiers en géosciences organisé par les étudiants du CMI Ingénierie Géologique et Civile, Université de Bordeaux, 12 avril 2024
-
Tokyo, plus grande « ville » au monde : aménager et gouverner la démesure
Languillon-AusselRaphaëlAvec ses quelques trente-cinq millions d’habitants, Tokyo est la « ville » la plus peuplée au monde, et l’une des métropoles les plus riches. Cette présentation vise à décrire, analyser et expliquer,
-
L'approche par la dépense du PIB et les grandes fonctions macroéconomiques
Maveyraud-TricoireSamuelL'approche par la dépense du PIB et les grandes fonctions macroéconomiques
-
-
-
-
Les déterminants de la demande agrégée
Maveyraud-TricoireSamuelLes déterminants de la demande agrégée
-
La théorie du revenu permanent et la notion de richesse
Maveyraud-TricoireSamuelLa théorie du revenu permanent et la notion de richesse
-
Présentation du mécanisme du multiplicateur
Maveyraud-TricoireSamuelPrésentation du mécanisme du multiplicateur