Chapitres
Notice
Setting Cumulative Emissions Targets to Reduce the Risk of "Dangerous" Climate Change
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Descriptif
The ultimate objective of climate change mitigation is to reduce the amount of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in order to achieve “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” (UNFCCC, Article 2). This statement raises a number of questions regarding (i) what “dangerous interference” means, (ii) what GHG concentration level may considered “safe”, and (iii) what emissions pathway should be taken towards stabilization. Here we present a novel approach to coupled climate-carbon cycle modelling which allows one to estimate the probability that any given level of greenhouse gas emissions will exceed specified global mean temperature thresholds for “dangerous anthropogenic interference”, taking into consideration uncertainties in climate sensitivity and the carbon cycle response to climate change. Results obtained within this framework can serve as a basis for selecting a greenhouse gas emissions level given a global mean temperature target and an overshoot probability that society is willing to accept. For instance, we show that in order to stabilize global mean temperature at 2°C above pre-industrial levels with a probability of at least 0.66, cumulative CO2-equivalent emissions after 2000 must not exceed a best estimate of about 640 PgC, independent of the path taken to stabilization.
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AmatoVincenzoHigh-resolution paleoclimatic studies (e.g. 18O, 13C, CH4, MS, ect) provide 38 detailed reconstructions of the Holocene climatic variability, but they don’t are unable to provide direct informations
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Debate
JoussaumeSylviePlantonSergeGonzales RoucoJesus FelipeGoosseHughesReissellAnniBrasseurGuyThe European Science Foundation (ESF) and the French Foundation of the Maison des Sciences de l’Homme (FMSH) (within the Entre-Sciences programme) have agreed to jointly develop a new conference
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Climate, Geography and Macroeconomics: Revised Data, Refined Analysis and New Findings
FüsselHans-MartinAssessments of social and economic impacts of climate change are primarily based on the results of biophysical climate impact models, which are aggregated, extrapolated and/or valued in monetary terms
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The Effect of Thermal Pollution on Benthic Foraminiferal Assemblages, in the Mediterranean Shore Fa…
ArieliRuthieOver the past several decades public and scientific awareness to global warming has increased significantly. As a result, many studies have examined the affects of global warming. However, the
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International Negociations on Climate Change: How to Take Advantage of Risk Aversion to Improve the…
ThoronSylvieClimate change is one of the best examples of global environmental problems. Countries are conscious that they have to find a solution to this global problem at the international level. Negotiations
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IPCC Working Group I
SomervilleRichardThe European Science Foundation (ESF) and the French Foundation of the Maison des Sciences de l’Homme (FMSH) (within the Entre-Sciences programme) have agreed to jointly develop a new conference
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Conference Opening
GuiotJoëlLauberVolkmarThe European Science Foundation (ESF) and the French Foundation of the Maison des Sciences de l’Homme (FMSH) (within the Entre-Sciences programme) have agreed to jointly develop a new conference
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From Climate Models to Earth System Models
BrasseurGuyComplex climate models that describe the evolution of the coupled ocean atmosphere cryosphere system are gradually extended to “non physical” components of the earth system, and account for land
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Are European Ecosystems Vulnerable to Climate Change
CramerWolfgangThe relatively simple question posed by this title turns out to be complicated in its implementation, for a number of reasons: First, ecosystems have changed in response to changing climate throughout
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Recent Trends and Vulnerabilities in the Carbon Cycle
CiaisPhilippeWe shall address the coupling between atmospheric circulation and the modelling of ecosystems, to have a better understanding of the carbon cycle, perturbed both by land use and Climate Change. The
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Interlocking Natural and Social Systems - Resilience, Governance and Research Policy Considerations
SvedinUnoIn this presentation the start is made from the 2007 IPCC statement that it now seems consolidated that there is a clear sign of the importance of the anthropogenic factors in the climate change
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Carbon Offsetting: An Ethical and Psychological Approach
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Géo-Rencontres 2024 / Compétences et acquis nécessaires pour entrer dans le monde du travail
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Géo-Rencontres 2024 / Variété des carrières via les formations de l'université
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La détermination du PIB à court terme
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Demande en biens et services et fluctuations conjoncturelles
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